[Population Modeling] Parameter estimation for population models

[Jacob Barhak]

Thanks Mattias,

Estimation of model parameters is an important topic. You will find that
most of us in the list, had to deal with such issues.

It is commendable that you decided to share code - model reproducibility is
important. You may want to follow the discussion on the data and model
sharing group they have interesting ways of coding differential equation
models that help sharing those. This may be helpful in the future,

Glancing at the paper, I see you took an approach of simplifying the
problem to allow solution. Many of us use assumptions. In fact,  the model
structure we use is an assumption as well. So there is a level of human
judgment embedded in the estimation method. Although in your case it is
small.

I am curious how other people in the list estimate model parameters. I
encountered several approaches in the past that build a spectrum of
estimation techniques that can be characterized by amount of human decision
making.

One interesting end of the spectrum was reported by Steve Leff, where human
experts go thorough a controlled process to determine parameters. Steve may
want to elaborate on this technique. And I also know he used other
techniques in the past as well from other sides of this estimation spectrum.

In the middle of the spectrum some modelers just picking numbers reported
in the literature to drive models.

On the other extreme spectrum end, there are robust mathematical estimation
techniques that rely on computation once the model is defined. The paper
Matthias attached falls near this end of the spectrum.

Where do modelers in this group find themselves? Do you rely more on human
judgment for estimation? Or do you find yourself on the end of relying on
numerical techniques?

I hope people choose to share experiences and insights.

                Jacob


On Wed, Sep 30, 2015 at 9:42 AM, Matthias Chung <mcchung at vt.edu> wrote:

> Hi everyone,
>
> Some of you might be interested in parameter estimation in population
> dynamic models. We developed a new efficient and robust estimation code in
> Matlab to “match” data with a differential equation model. We provide the
> code here:
>
> http://www.math.vt.edu/people/mcchung/resources/Continuous_Shooting.zip.
>
> The associated preprint can be found here:
> http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.06926
>
> Thanks,
>
> Matthias Chung
>
> ------
> Matthias Chung
>
> Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech
> McBryde, RM 474
> 225 Stanger Street
> Blacksburg, VA 24061
>
> Phone: +1 (540) 231-3446
> Fax : +1 (540) 231-5960
> www.math.vt.edu/people/mcchung
>
>
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