[Population Modeling] Any type of population modelers in your institutions you can point to?
Dan Yamin
dan.yamin at gmail.com
Tue Apr 4 04:41:12 PDT 2017
*Population model *
My name is Dan Yamin, and I am the head of the Laboratory for Epidemic
Modeling and Analysis, in the faculty of engineering at Tel Aviv
University. Our primary focus in the lab is on healthcare - where we try to
predict the spread of infectious diseases, as well as analyze
population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential
intervention programs. In a broader context, we also ask further questions
about topics that can be modeled in the same manner as the spread of
infectious diseases. These topics include cyber security and computer
viruses, viral marketing, information spread, and even behaviors with
social-contagion aspects such as imitation of facial expression, smoking
habits and risk to become obese.
Regardless of the topics, at core of our research lays the exploration of
the dynamic between individuals in the population. Thus, we use in our
research various complex system tools, such as Markov chains, statistics,
differential equations modeling, game theory and network science, in an
interdisciplinary way. For example, to evaluate the population
effectiveness of an RSV vaccination program in the United States, we
developed age-dependent transmission model (Yamin et al. 2016 *PNAS*). Our
results demonstrated that vaccinating children younger than five years of
age, will be the most efficient and effective way to prevent RSV infection
in both children and older adults. In the same line, using theoretical
epidemiological game model (Yamin and Gavious 2013, Management Science) to
find the optimal incentive for influenza vaccination, our findings
suggested that for the benefit of the elderly greater incentives should be
administered to the non-elderly than targeting the elderly themselves. Using
network analyses (Yamin et al. 2014, *PLOS Computational Biology*) as well
as medical record examinations (Yamin et al. 2015, Vaccine), we showed that
individuals infected with influenza in previous year, were at an elevated
risk to become infected in subsequent years, and thus should be prioritized
for influenza vaccination. In light of these conclusions, the Israeli
Ministry of Health updated the policy this year, and ‘Clalit Health
Services’, the largest HMO in Israel applied various intervention programs
to promote vaccination among the targeted population. Another example is
the development of a population model for Ebola disease based on methods
from scheduling processes (Yamin et al. 2014, *Annals of Internal Medicine*).
Results from this research demonstrated that Ebola can be eliminated if the
World Health Organization will allocate the resources differently, by
focusing on the isolation of infected individuals in critical condition
within 4 days from symptom onset rather than isolating any case based on
hospital capacity.
Categorization of our work.
1. Managing disease spread
2. Epidemiology and public health
3. Predicting drug effects
4. Health Economics
On Tue, Apr 4, 2017 at 5:13 AM, Jacob Barhak <jacob.barhak at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi Dan,
>
> Can you find a minute to send in your text to the mailing list after
> joining - the email is: popmodwkgrpimag-news at simtk.org.
>
> I am waiting for you and another person to have sufficient number to start
> editing.
>
> And we need you on the mailing list for future communications - otherwise
> I could have just copied the text.
>
> Hopefully you can send this within a day or two.
>
>
> Jacob
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 30, 2017 at 12:59 PM, Jacob Barhak <jacob.barhak at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Thanks Dan,
>>
>> This is a great introduction.
>>
>> I have only two more small requests.
>>
>> 1. Add a the bibliography for the references you point to so others can
>> access it more easily and help us with editing and allow others to look up
>> your work.
>>
>> 2. Actually subscribe to the mailing list and post this as plain text in
>> an Email message. I ask for plain text rather than a word document since it
>> archive better in our archive and be more compatible with mailing systems.
>> And I ask that you subscribe to the mailing list so you will get further
>> communications about the paper. We will use the mailing list to
>> communicate with all authors. Our mailing list does not generate too much
>> mail traffic as you can see in our archives.
>>
>> Once you submit we will almost have enough folk to start actual editing.
>>
>> I really appreciate your responsiveness and willingness to help here.
>>
>> Jacob
>>
>>
>> On Mar 30, 2017 6:36 AM, "Dan Yamin" <dan.yamin at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Dear Jacob,
>>>
>>> I attach the paragraphs requested. Hope that's ok.
>>>
>>> Best,
>>>
>>> Dan
>>>
>>> On Tue, Mar 28, 2017 at 4:36 PM, Jacob Barhak <jacob.barhak at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Thanks Dan,
>>>>
>>>> This time you will find the step by step instructions below.
>>>>
>>>> You must excuse me. I am doing this while being sick with some sort of
>>>> flu I got after going to the NIH where the working group met. This is how I
>>>> know the dissemination working group is interested in this material.
>>>>
>>>> Anyway, I appreciate your willingness to help.
>>>>
>>>> Jacob
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> #################
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> 1. Write two paragraphs that describe your population modeling and add
>>>> references to your publications for more details.
>>>>
>>>> 2. Categorize your modeling approach by research area. Keywords we used
>>>> in the past are:
>>>> Managing disease spread
>>>> Resource planning and allocation
>>>> Predicting drug effects
>>>> Risk assessment
>>>> Ecosystem management
>>>> Testing theory
>>>> Epidemiology and public health
>>>>
>>>> 3. Add keywords for computational methods you used. Examples include
>>>> Agent Based Models, differential equations, Monte-Carlo simulation, yet
>>>> there are many more options that you can find in: Table 1 in:
>>>> https://simtk.org/docman/view.php/962/1963/SummerSim_2016_Po
>>>> pMod_Submit_2016_05_15_Robert_Smith.pdf
>>>>
>>>> 4. Join our mailing list at:
>>>> https://simtk.org/mailman/listinfo/popmodwkgrpimag-news
>>>>
>>>> 5. After joining send an email to the list introducing your work with
>>>> the information you assembled in points 1-3 above
>>>>
>>>> 6. We will do the editing once we accumulated enough contributions from
>>>> population modelers. The current intention is to assemble a paper for
>>>> SummerSim, yet the venue may change. You will get an email from the list so
>>>> you can inspect the final product we submit.
>>>>
>>>> 7. After review, we may ask you for some more details depending on the
>>>> reviewers - typically this is minor for most authors - last time they asked
>>>> us to categorize the work - so I am asking you to do this beforehand in
>>>> points 2 and 3.
>>>>
>>>> 8. After acceptance we will ask you for 1 slide to add to a cumulative
>>>> presentation that shows work by all authors - one slide each
>>>>
>>>> All this should not take more than a few hours overall at most spread
>>>> over a few weeks - so you should not feel it at all. If all goes well, you
>>>> will be part of our review paper.
>>>>
>>>> The idea behind those review papers is to map population modeling work
>>>> so in the future population modelers can learn from techniques other
>>>> modelers use. Think about a map of population modeling..
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mar 28, 2017 7:50 AM, "Dan Yamin" <dan.yamin at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I'll be happy to help.
>>>>> I will send it to you tomorrow.
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, Mar 28, 2017 at 12:51 AM, Jacob Barhak <jacob.barhak at gmail.com
>>>>> > wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Hi Dan,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You mentioned that you cannot make it to SummerSim due to teaching
>>>>>> obligations. However, will you be able to send in two paragraphs about your
>>>>>> population modeling work to the population modeling a mailing list.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It should not take more than 15 minutes and it will help us all. I
>>>>>> was at the NIH last week where they reviewed our working group activities.
>>>>>> The working group got a compliment for this type of activity. The
>>>>>> dissemination working group will be looking at these materials to propagate
>>>>>> those further.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I am sending you detailed instructions of what I am asking for below
>>>>>> - it really is not taxing in time. We need those two paragraphs within a
>>>>>> week or two at most.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hopefully you decide to join our next review paper.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Jacob
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Jacob Barhak Ph.D.
>>>>>> http://sites.google.com/site/jacobbarhak/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ################################
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Information about the population modeling working group:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This is the link to the portal from where you can join:
>>>>>> https://simtk.org/mailman/listinfo/popmodwkgrpimag-news
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This is our portal at IMAG - the government organization web site
>>>>>> that hosts the working group:
>>>>>> http://www.imagwiki.nibib.nih.gov/content/population-modeling-working
>>>>>> -group
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Here is a simple short explanation on the working group:
>>>>>> https://simtk.org/home/popmodwkgrpimag
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Here are some examples we collected from our members:
>>>>>> https://simtk.org/docman/view.php/962/1897/SpringSim2015PopM
>>>>>> od_Upload_2015_04_10.pptx
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://simtk.org/docman/view.php/962/1963/SummerSim_2016_Po
>>>>>> pMod_Submit_2016_05_15_Robert_Smith.pdf
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Here are our discussion archives:
>>>>>> https://simtk.org/pipermail/popmodwkgrpimag-news/
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 5, 2017 at 7:13 AM, Jacob Barhak <jacob.barhak at gmail.com>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Thanks Dan,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hopefully it will attract some relevant response.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Jacob
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 5, 2017 at 6:03 AM, Dan Yamin <dan.yamin at gmail.com>
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Dear Jacob,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I will share your email with colleagues from my department (IE at
>>>>>>>> Tel Aviv University).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Kind regards,
>>>>>>>> Dan
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Sat, Feb 4, 2017 at 6:30 PM, Jacob Barhak <
>>>>>>>> jacob.barhak at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Hi Joe, Hi Dan,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> You may recall my last approach to you regarding papers on
>>>>>>>>> population modeling. This time, I am approaching you again, yet with a
>>>>>>>>> slightly different request.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I am looking for population modelers in your institutions to
>>>>>>>>> present themselves to others in the population modeling working group
>>>>>>>>> mailing list. There are details I am listing below.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Surely your institutions have such modelers - our definition is
>>>>>>>>> broad and generally includes modeling a plurality of entities. Apparently
>>>>>>>>> we are very good at some sort of modeling such as FEM, yet have large gaps
>>>>>>>>> in modeling populations and therefore we need more crossover between
>>>>>>>>> different types of population modelers. We were trying to assemble those
>>>>>>>>> under one roof for a while. The way we do it is regularly asking such
>>>>>>>>> modelers to introduce themselves in a mailing list and we gather those
>>>>>>>>> introductions, edit them and produce a review paper. The idea is to map the
>>>>>>>>> field to allow future cross over between techniques. You will find examples
>>>>>>>>> to two such papers below. We started from scratch about two years ago and
>>>>>>>>> in the second paper added a category map that we want to grow further.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Note that the effort for the researcher is minimal and consists of
>>>>>>>>> writing a few words about their work and sending it along with a few
>>>>>>>>> references and preparing a slide. For most researchers it should not take
>>>>>>>>> more than an hour or two.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Do note that this is separate form the Call for papers I sent you
>>>>>>>>> a while ago, although the review paper may be targeted to the same venue
>>>>>>>>> for convenience.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Hopefully you can point out some researchers in your institution
>>>>>>>>> who will be willing to help in this effort.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Jacob
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> ###############################
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Information about the population modeling working group:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> This is the link to the portal from where you can join:
>>>>>>>>> https://simtk.org/mailman/listinfo/popmodwkgrpimag-news
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> This is our portal at IMAG - the government organization web site
>>>>>>>>> that hosts the working group:
>>>>>>>>> http://www.imagwiki.nibib.nih.gov/content/population-modeling-
>>>>>>>>> working-group
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Here is a simple short explanation on the working group:
>>>>>>>>> https://simtk.org/home/popmodwkgrpimag
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Here are some examples we collected from our members:
>>>>>>>>> https://simtk.org/docman/view.php/962/1897/SpringSim2015PopM
>>>>>>>>> od_Upload_2015_04_10.pptx
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://simtk.org/docman/view.php/962/1963/SummerSim_2016_Po
>>>>>>>>> pMod_Submit_2016_05_15_Robert_Smith.pdf
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Here are our discussion archives:
>>>>>>>>> https://simtk.org/pipermail/popmodwkgrpimag-news/
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>> Best Regards,
>>>>>>>> Dan Yamin
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Senior Lecturer
>>>>>>>> The Department of Industrial Engineering
>>>>>>>> Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv university
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Best Regards,
>>>>> Dan Yamin
>>>>>
>>>>> Senior Lecturer
>>>>> The Department of Industrial Engineering
>>>>> Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv university
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Best Regards,
>>> Dan Yamin
>>>
>>> Senior Lecturer
>>> The Department of Industrial Engineering
>>> Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv university
>>>
>>
>
--
Best Regards,
Dan Yamin
Senior Lecturer
The Department of Industrial Engineering
Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv university
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