[Vp-integration-subgroup] [Vp-reproduce-subgroup] White paper revision

[William Waites]

> Also, to motivate the focus on credibility, it could be helpful to cite an instance where the pandemic models were wrong or where lack of credibility (trust) inhibited use of a model. For the former, one example that comes to mind is the widely cited IHME model which was substantially off in the Spring. 

Another good example is Friston’s dynamic causal model which is interesting in itself and apparently a useful technique in neuroscience but does badly for infectious disease, famously leading to the assertion that the reason the model results’ divergence from reality must be do to mysterious “epidemiological dark matter”. The debunking of this sucked up a lot of time from people who know better…