[Population Modeling] Revised introduction with references and request

[H. Stephen Leff]

Skipped content of type multipart/alternative-------------- next part --------------
Hi - I’m Steve Leff. I direct the Research Program in Mental Health Systems Planning and Evidence in the Harvard Medical School Department of Psychiatry and am a Senior Vice President in the Human Services Research Institute. My modeling work is in the area of planning and resource allocation for mental health systems for persons with serious mental illness.  The model I have worked with most over the years is a web-based Markov simulation named Planning by the Numbers (PBN). There is a professional version for planners who wish to use all of their own inputs.  There is also a free version of PBN for planners who wish to employ a simpler version of the simulation that utilizes data synthesized from a variety of mental health planning projects (http://model.planningbythenumbers.org/. Inputs include such things as the population to be served, services desired, service unit costs, and predicted outcomes in the form of transition probabilities. Typically, the model is used for applications like budget planning, settling right to treatment suits, planning to resize hospitals, and planning jail diversion programs. Currently, I’m expanding the model to cover integrated physical health care for persons with serious mental illness as well as mental health care. I am also working on a meta-analysis of transition probabilities from studies of mental health systems. I very occasionally blog on mental health planning at Mental Health Planning by the Numbers (http://www.planningbythenumbers.org/).

A comprehensive description of my modeling work can be found in: Leff, H. S., et al. (2010). Mental Health Allocation and Planning Simulation Model. Handbook of Healthcare Delivery Systems, CRC Press: 42-41-42-19. 

A description of a model application particularly relevant to the current state of mental health care in which prisons have become the “new asylums” is Hughes, D., Steadman, H., Case, B. Griffin, P. and Leff, H.S. (2012). "A Simulation Modeling Approach for Planning and Costing Jail Diversion Programs for Persons with Mental Illness." Criminal Justice and Behavior 39(4): 434-446.

I especially would be interested in hearing from persons who have, or know of persons who have, transition probability data for people with serious mental illness, or persons who have meta-analyzed transition probability data.