[Population Modeling] coupling agent based models

[Aristides Moustakas]

Dear all,

I am Aristides Moustakas and I am a new member of the Population Modeling
Working Group mailing list associated with the
Inter Agency Modeling and Analysis Group (IMAG). I am contributing this for
introducing myself into the group and providing some information regarding
my recent work.

My web page is below and most of my papers are uploaded in Research Gate
http://www.sbcs.qmul.ac.uk/staff/aristidesmoustakas.html

http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aristides_Moustakas


A recent paper that I have contributed in regarded coupling of agent based
models of badgers with agent based models of cattle and farms for
predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis was very well received by
the press in the UK. The story was covered by the BBC, the Guardian and
practically most media in the UK last week

I am pasting the abstract of the paper below - the paper is published
online in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
<http://link.springer.com/journal/477>
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-014-1016-y

Bovine Tuberculosis (TB)
<http://link.springer.com/search?dc.title=Tuberculosis+%28TB%29&facet-content-type=ReferenceWorkEntry&sortOrder=relevance>
is
a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can
be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a
problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a
recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion
about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual
based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the
key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at
approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a
very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each
species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can
replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as
well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space
used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling
and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect
models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space
we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB
testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most
significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of
winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers
were culled or not explained about 5 %, while the accuracy of the test
employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3 % of the variance
in the number of infected cattle.

Here is a list of some of the media coverage:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30820579

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/14/testing-cattle-better-than-culling-badgers-control-bovine-tb-study-suggests

http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-01-bovine-tuberculosis-effective-badger-culls.html

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150114072705.htm

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/more-evidence-against-badger-cull-testing-bovine-tb-more-effective-measure-1483421

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/testing-better-badger-cull-154624501.html#pPDm66d

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/qmuo-tfb011415.php

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Testing-8216-better-badger-cull-8217-say/story-25854685-detail/story.html

http://www.stackyard.com/news/2015/01/vet/02_badger_cull.html

http://en.newhub.shafaqna.com/UK/169671-More-evidence-against-badger-cull-Testing-for-bovine-TB-more-effective

http://www.nationalheadlines.co.uk/892813/testing-better-than-badger-cull/

http://www.healthcanal.com/infections/59135-testing-for-bovine-tuberculosis-is-more-effective-than-badger-culls-at-controlling-the-disease.html


Best regards,


Aris
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