[Population Modeling] Re: PopModWkGrpIMAG-news Digest, Vol 3, Issue 22

Thu Jan 22 04:41:28 PST 2015

Hello I am Romualdo Jr,

I am very grateful for the invitation to participate in this very
imoprtante group IMAG. I am sending herewith my latest work related to
population growth "APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING TO STUDY THE
POPULATION GROWTH OF SERGIPE". I hope to contribute in some way to the
group and help them to publish related articles.

Thank you ...... you soon.

Romualdo

2015-01-22 8:05 GMT-02:00 <popmodwkgrpimag-news-request at simtk.org>:

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> Today's Topics:
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>    1. coupling agent based models (Aristides Moustakas)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 12:45:19 +0200
> From: Aristides Moustakas <arismoustakas at gmail.com>
> Subject: [Population Modeling] coupling agent based models
> To: popmodwkgrpimag-news at simtk.org
> Message-ID:
>         <
> CAGynQsaHq3PfsqQSq7BgqU959s0jBqBFhzGMK9hih8gGjj+_5A at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
> Dear all,
>
> I am Aristides Moustakas and I am a new member of the Population Modeling
> Working Group mailing list associated with the
> Inter Agency Modeling and Analysis Group (IMAG). I am contributing this for
> introducing myself into the group and providing some information regarding
> my recent work.
>
> My web page is below and most of my papers are uploaded in Research Gate
> http://www.sbcs.qmul.ac.uk/staff/aristidesmoustakas.html
>
> http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aristides_Moustakas
>
>
> A recent paper that I have contributed in regarded coupling of agent based
> models of badgers with agent based models of cattle and farms for
> predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis was very well received by
> the press in the UK. The story was covered by the BBC, the Guardian and
> practically most media in the UK last week
>
> I am pasting the abstract of the paper below - the paper is published
> online in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
> <http://link.springer.com/journal/477>
> http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-014-1016-y
>
> Bovine Tuberculosis (TB)
> <
> http://link.springer.com/search?dc.title=Tuberculosis+%28TB%29&facet-content-type=ReferenceWorkEntry&sortOrder=relevance
> >
> is
> a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can
> be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a
> problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a
> recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion
> about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual
> based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the
> key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at
> approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a
> very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each
> species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can
> replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as
> well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space
> used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling
> and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect
> models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space
> we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB
> testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most
> significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of
> winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers
> were culled or not explained about 5 %, while the accuracy of the test
> employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3 % of the variance
> in the number of infected cattle.
>
> Here is a list of some of the media coverage:
>
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30820579
>
>
> http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/14/testing-cattle-better-than-culling-badgers-control-bovine-tb-study-suggests
>
>
> http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-01-bovine-tuberculosis-effective-badger-culls.html
>
> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150114072705.htm
>
>
> http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/more-evidence-against-badger-cull-testing-bovine-tb-more-effective-measure-1483421
>
> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/testing-better-badger-cull-154624501.html#pPDm66d
>
> http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/qmuo-tfb011415.php
>
>
> http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Testing-8216-better-badger-cull-8217-say/story-25854685-detail/story.html
>
> http://www.stackyard.com/news/2015/01/vet/02_badger_cull.html
>
>
> http://en.newhub.shafaqna.com/UK/169671-More-evidence-against-badger-cull-Testing-for-bovine-TB-more-effective
>
> http://www.nationalheadlines.co.uk/892813/testing-better-than-badger-cull/
>
>
> http://www.healthcanal.com/infections/59135-testing-for-bovine-tuberculosis-is-more-effective-than-badger-culls-at-controlling-the-disease.html
>
>
> Best regards,
>
>
> Aris
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-- 
__________________________________________________________________________
Romualdo Santos Silva Junior
Departamento de Física
Presidente do CAFIS (Centro acadêmico de física da UFS)
Universidade Federal de Sergipe
Av. Marechal Rondon, s/n Jardim Rosa Elze
CEP 49100-000 São Cristóvão - SE
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