[Population Modeling] Here’s my paragraph for the paper

Wed Apr 20 05:59:44 PDT 2016

Colleagues,

Here’s my paragraph for the paper:

Our team’s work involves developing and utilizing computational models and tools to help decision makers address various major public health issues. One example is RHEA (Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst) a software platform that can generate an agent-based model (ABM) of a health care system with detailed representations of the health care facilities and the patients moving among these facilities and the surrounding community.[1] Our team has utilized RHEA to generate an ABM of all the acute (30+) and long term (70+) care facilities in Orange County, California. We have used this model to help better understand the spread and control of various healthcare-associated pathogens including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)[2-6], vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE)[7], norovirus[8], and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE)[9, 10]. Another example is our HERMES (Highly extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains), a software platform that can generate a detailed discrete event simulation of any health product supply chain. Our HERMES Logistics Team has used HERMES to generate simulation models of the immunization supply chains for a number of countries including Niger, Benin, Mozambique, Senegal, Vietnam, Thailand, Kenya, and three states in India.[11-15] These models have helped decision makers ranging from UNICEF to Country Ministries of Health to product developers address a variety of questions such as what is the impact of introducing new vaccines and other technologies[16-18] and how should the supply chain be altered to improve vaccine delivery[19-22]. A third example are large scale agent-based models (ABMs) that serve as virtual representations of entire towns, cities, counties, and states to  better understand the spread and control of both communicable and non-communicable diseases.[23-32] These include ABMs of the Washington, DC metropolitan area and Pennsylvania. For instance, during the 2009 influenza pandemic, we were embedded in the US Health and Human Services to utilize some of these computational models to help with the national response.

1.            Lee BY, Wong KF, Bartsch SM, Yilmaz SL, Avery TR, Brown ST, et al. The Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA): simulation modeling tool to assist infectious disease control in a health system. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association. 2013;20(e1):e139-46.

2.            Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Wong KF, McKinnell JA, Cui E, Cao C, et al. Beyond the Intensive Care Unit (ICU): Countywide Impact of Universal ICU Staphylococcus aureus Decolonization. Am J Epidemiol. 2016;183(5):480-9. doi: 10.1093/aje/kww008. PubMed PMID: 26872710; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC4772440.

3.            Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Wong KF, Singh A, Avery TR, Kim DS, et al. The importance of nursing homes in the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) among hospitals. Medical Care. 2013;51(3):205-15.

4.            Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Wong KF, Yilmaz SL, Avery TR, Singh A, et al. Simulation shows hospitals that cooperate on infection control obtain better results than hospitals acting alone. Health Affairs. 2012;31(10):2295-303.

5.            Lee BY, McGlone SM, Wong KF, Yilmaz SL, Avery TR, Song Y, et al. Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology. 2011;32(6):562-72.

6.            Lee BY, Singh A, Bartsch SM, Wong KF, Kim DS, Avery TR, et al. The potential regional impact of contact precuation use in nursing homes to control methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology. 2013;34(2):151-60.

7.            Lee BY, Yilmaz SL, Wong KF, Bartsch SM, Eubank S, Song Y, et al. Modeling the regional spread and control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE). American Journal of Infection Control. 2013;41(8):668-73.

8.            Bartsch SM, Huang SS, Wong KF, Avery TR, Lee BY. The spread and control of norovirus outbreaks among hospitals in a region: a simulation model. Open Forum Infect Dis. 2014;1(2):ofu030. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofu030. PubMed PMID: 25734110; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC4281820.

9.            Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Wong KF, McKinnell JA, Slayton RB, Miller LG, et al. The potential trajectory of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, an emerging threat to health-care facilities, and the impact of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention toolkit. Am J Epidemiol. 2016;183(5):471-9. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwv299. PubMed PMID: 26861238.

10.          Slayton RB, Toth D, Lee BY, Tanner W, Bartsch SM, Khader K, et al. Vital Signs: Estimated effects of coordinated action to reduce antibiotic-resistant infections in health care facilities - United States. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2015;64(30):826-31.

11.          Lee BY, Connor DL, Wateska AR, Norman BA, Rajgopal J, Cakouros BE, et al. Landscaping the structures of GAVI country vaccine supply chains and testing the effects of radical redesign. Vaccine. 2015;33(36):4451-8. Epub 2015/07/26. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.07.033. PubMed PMID: 26209835.

12.          Lee BY, Schreiber B, Wateska AR, Connor DL, Dicko HM, Jaillard P, et al. The Benin experience: How computational modeling can assist major vaccine policy changes in low and middle income countries. Vaccine. 2015;33(25):2858-61.

13.          Assi TM, Brown ST, Djibo A, Norman BA, Rajgopal J, Welling JS, et al. Impact of changing the measles vaccine vial size on Niger's vaccine supply chain: a computational model. BMC Public Health. 2011;11:425. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-425. PubMed PMID: 21635774; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3129313.

14.          Lee BY, Assi TM, Rookkapan K, Connor DL, Rajgopal J, Sornsrivichai V, et al. Replacing the measles ten-dose vaccine presentation with the single-dose presentation in Thailand. Vaccine. 2011;29(21):3811-7. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.03.013. PubMed PMID: 21439313; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3084328.

15.          Assi TM, Rookkapan K, Rajgopal J, Sornsrivichai V, Brown ST, Welling JS, et al. How influenza vaccination policy may affect vaccine logistics. Vaccine. 2012;30(30):4517-23. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.04.041. PubMed PMID: 22537993; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3592980.

16.          Lee BY, Assi TM, Rajgopal J, Norman BA, Chen SI, Brown ST, et al. Impact of introducing the pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines into the routine immunization program in Niger. American journal of public health. 2012;102(2):269-76. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2011.300218. PubMed PMID: 21940923; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3386610.

17.          Lee BY, Assi TM, Rookkapan K, Wateska AR, Rajgopal J, Sornsrivichai V, et al. Maintaining vaccine delivery following the introduction of the rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in Thailand. PloS one. 2011;6(9):e24673. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024673. PubMed PMID: 21931805; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3172252.

18.          Lee BY, Cakouros BE, Assi TM, Connor DL, Welling J, Kone S, et al. The impact of making vaccines thermostable in Niger's vaccine supply chain. Vaccine. 2012;30(38):5637-43. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.06.087. PubMed PMID: 22789507; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3592976.

19.          Assi TM, Brown ST, Kone S, Norman BA, Djibo A, Connor DL, et al. Removing the regional level from the Niger vaccine supply chain. Vaccine. 2013;31(26):2828-34. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.04.011. PubMed PMID: 23602666.

20.          Haidari LA, Connor DL, Wateska AR, Brown ST, Mueller LE, Norman BA, et al. Augmenting Transport versus Increasing Cold Storage to Improve Vaccine Supply Chains. PloS one. 2013;8(5):e64303. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064303. PubMed PMID: 23717590; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3661440.

21.          Brown ST, Lee BY. Unless changes are made in Benin, multiple storage and transport bottlenecks may prevent vaccines from reaching the population. Vaccine. 2014;32(21):2518-9.

22.          Brown ST, Schreiber B, Cakouros BE, Wateska AR, Dicko HM, Connor DL, et al. The benefits of redesigning Benin's vaccine supply chain. Vaccine. 2014;32(32):4097-103. Epub 2014/05/13. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.04.090. PubMed PMID: 24814550.

23.          Lee BY, Brown ST, Korch GW, Cooley P, Zimmerman RK, Wheaton WD, et al. A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Vaccine. 2010;28:4875-9.

24.          Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley PC, Zimmerman RK, Wheaton WD, Zimmer SM, et al. A computer simulation of employee vaccination to mitigate an influenza epidemic. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2010;38(3):247-57.

25.          Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley P, Potter MA, Wheaton WD, Voorhees RE, et al. Simulating school closure strategies to mitigate an influenza epidemic. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice. 2010;16(3):252-61.

26.          Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley P, Grefenstette JJ, Zimmerman RK, Zimmer SM, et al. Vaccination deep into a pandemic wave: potential mechanisms for a "third wave" and the impact of vaccination. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2010;39(5):e21-e9.

27.          Lee BY, Brown ST, Bailey RR, Zimmerman RK, Potter MA, McGlone SM, et al. The benefits to all of ensuring equal and timely access to influenza vaccines in poor communities. Health Affairs. 2011;30(8):1141-50.

28.          Lee BY, Bedford VL, Roberts MS, Carley KM. Virtual epidemic in a virtual city: simulating the spread of influenza in a US metropolitan area. Translational Research. 2008;151:275-87.

29.          Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Brown ST, Cooley P, Wheaton WD, Zimmerman RK. Quantifying the economic value and quality of life impact of earlier influenza vaccination. Med Care. 2015;53(3):218-29. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000000302. PubMed PMID: 25590676.

30.          Brown ST, Tai JHY, Bailey RR, Cooley PC, Wheaton WD, Potter MA, et al. Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost? A computational simulation of Pennsylvania BMC Public Health. 2011;11(1):353.

31.          Cooley P, Brown ST, Cajka J, Chasteen B, Ganapathi L, Grefenstette JJ, et al. The role of subway travel in an influenza epidemic: a New York City simulation. Journal of Urban Health. 2011;Epub ahead of print.

32.          Cooley P, Lee BY, Brown ST, Cajka J, Chasteen B, Ganapathi L, et al. Protecting health care workers: a pandemic simulation based on Allegheny County. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. 2010;4(2):61-72.

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