[Population Modeling] Discussing the Population Modeling panel in SummerSim

Tue Feb 2 16:45:42 PST 2016

Hi Melanie, Hi Jeljer, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan,

It seems the panel is forming nicely.  I will try to summarize what we had
so far and help figure the rest.

1. The topic seems to revolve around "estimation and validation in
population modeling" with some variations. If you are all ok with this
general topic, I suggest we stick with it as a base.

2. It seems there is agreement on separate papers with the same title
prefix. So please allocate time on writing a short 3 page paper. Since
panelists are not closely affiliated, each will review the papers of
another panelist which will contribute to panel cohesion since the
panelists will influence each others final paper. Note that the review
process is public and non-blind.

3. Presentations followed by a period of questions to all panelists seems
to be the choice. I assume there will be 20-30 minutes per panelist, yet we
will have to set timing once we know number of presentations.

Olaf asked about other presenters. Yes, there will be other presentations
by non panelists. In fact any one of you can choose to detach from the
panel and submit a paper on their own. I will send a CFP to the list
following this message.

The difference for panelists would be:
1. Panelists will have some discount that SCS promised - I have no exact
details yet.  This makes sense since they will have more involvement.
2. Panelists will gain extra exposure which you are already getting with
these communications.
3. If time is available, panelists will get more time for discussion beyond
other presenters. I will communicate with organizers to see what is
possible beyond that.  Yet for now, assume the panel is part of the BMPM
track.

Note that SummerSim is a Multi-conference, so having a panel may attract
more people.  From the past, you should expect about 10-20 in the room for
the presentation if last years are indicative. I suspect a panel can
attract more.

So for panelists still interested, please:

1. Confirm that you are ok with the topic and format by sending an email to
this list. Or continue discussing the topic until consensus is reached. And
you can split into two panels with separate topics, or announce you are
interested in a paper outside the panel.

2. Start writing a short 3 page paper to submit to the SCS web site. Recall
that the title prefix should be the same for all papers if you are in the
panel.

3. Allocate time to review a paper or two by another panelist. This review
will be public.

Hopefully this explains the next steps and I hope more panelists would
express interest in the topic forming.

           Jacob

Dear All,
I agree with Stefan re 1 and 2.

1. I like the idea of talking about input-output stuff - data sources,
constraints, validation issues.

2. Fully agree with Stefan.

3. If we have slides, this should be flash talks, not longish formal
presentations. I am still unclear whether we have presentations from
 conference participants who are NOT panelists?

My 2 cents
Olaf

--

Olaf Dammann, MD

Professor of Public Health & Community Medicine

Tufts University School of Medicine

Boston, MA 02111

On Jan 21, 2016, at 4:00 AM, Stefan Scholz <stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de>
wrote:

Hi all,

thanks for all your efforts! Here are my thoughts on the three points:

1. Topic: I am not quite sure whether the topics really do mean the same
thing. I would understand Melanies suggestion as "what are the differences
in the results/*output**s* from estimation vs. simulation" whereas I would
understand the topic "estimation in population modeling" more as estimation
of model *input *parameters. (Please tell me, if I got that wrong!) I think
both are interesting topics and maybe we could bring them both together
under the general topic of validity (external and internal). (i.e. how do
we estimate model input to get externally valid results and how do we
assess the latter)

2. I would vote for separate papers under the same topic, sharing the same
prefix.

3. I would go for option B). Option A) is fine as well, but we should make
clear if there are some contrary opinions on this topic. If panelists agree
on almost every topic, this might get boring. Also, I would see the number
of people in the audience a critical factor for a panel. If we are a small
group, sharing the methods used for estimation and discussing it in the
group might be more beneficial to all attendees.

Best,
Stefan

Am 19.01.2016 um 19:42 schrieb Jacob Barhak:

Hi Melanie, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan, Hi Carl,

You all expressed interest in appearing in a population modeling panel in
SummerSim.

Melanie also suggested a topic:
"differences and extrapolation concerns around 'simulation vs. estimation’
in bio-medical area"

At this point, I wish interested parties to discuss the following:

1. The topic - feel free to suggest alternative topics/titles and we can
see how having the panel will contribute to the topic. Note that if we end
up with different topics, it is also ok since others may join to support
the topic you suggested. Hopefully there will be synergy, yet complementary
topics or even different opinions are possible. This discussion itself is
valuable.

2. Writing Format. The conference includes a paper. Part of the discussion
should be how do you prefer to be published. Do you want a joint paper? Or
would you like each to submit a short paper with similar topics? This would
probably be tied to the topic you suggest. Yet note that whatever paper
format chosen, it will undergo public non-blind review.

3. Presentation format: How would you like the talk to be? Possibilities
include: A) Totally informal discussion where panelists converge amongst
themselves, possibly with moderation and questions from he audience. B)
Presentations with a projector of each panelist and then a period of
questions. C) A combination of both, for example very short introductions
with a projector and then a discussion. Assume half an hour per panelist,
yet this may change.

As a default starting point for discussion, allow me to suggest the
following:

1. Topic Estimation in population modeling -  its generalization for what
Melanie suggested - feel free to reshape it any way comfortable to you.

2. Writing format: Very short separate papers using the topic as a title
prefix. to have a common prefix fro all panelists. Here is an
example: Estimation in population Modeling - application in Disease Models.

3. Presentation format: Short digital introductions of about 15 minutes
each - with only a few slides and a discussion that will start with
expanding prepared topics encountered during discussions and review and
then answering questions from the audience.

This default can be changed during discussion.

Please feel free to join this discussion if you are interested in appearing
in a population modeling panel in SummerSim - even if you are not
personally addressed. This post is initially directed to those who
expressed interest on this list, yet we can certainly expand the scope to
include more panelists, and I know of interest by others at this point.

I look forward to your opinions.

                 Jacob

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-- 
Stefan Scholz

University of Bielefeld
Faculty of Public Health
Department of Health Economics and Health Management
P.O. Box 10 01 31
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany

Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648
Mail: stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de

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