[Population Modeling] Discussing the Population Modeling panel in SummerSim
Stefan Scholz
stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de
Thu Feb 4 02:28:49 PST 2016
Dear all,
I just want to add the issue of "model calibration" which seems to me as
being related to estimation and validation. Just to give a short example
what I mean by calibration: We use some information of a data set to
estimate our model parameters, run the model based on those parameters
and see that the results are not externally valid. We the iteratively
change some of the input parameters until the model results are
externally valid. I would find it very interesting to discuss if
calibration should be performed and if so, how far from the originally
estimated parameters you would accept your calibrated values to be. [I
hope I am not stating the obvious or missed some guidance on this topic
already available ;-) ]
@ Jelster: If you use R, maybe the GAMLSS-package developed by Prof.
Mikis Stasinopoulos is helpful to you. As far as I understand it, the
package was developed from the need of parameter estimation in
agent-based modeling. You can estimate all parameters of large list of
probability distributions. So let's say you want to estimate the
probability of getting diabetes conditional on age, sex, education, etc.
You can estimate a general linear model using a beta-distribution and
include the resulting coefficients to include them in your model. So,
every person in your model can calculate the parameters of the
beta-distribution based on their age, sex, education, etc. and you can
draw random numbers from that distribution to determine whether a person
gets diabetes or not.
Best,
Stefan
Am 03.02.2016 um 01:45 schrieb Jacob Barhak:
>
> Hi Melanie, Hi Jeljer, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan,
>
> It seems the panel is forming nicely. I will try to summarize what we
> had so far and help figure the rest.
>
> 1. The topic seems to revolve around "estimation and validation in
> population modeling" with some variations. If you are all ok with this
> general topic, I suggest we stick with it as a base.
>
> 2. It seems there is agreement on separate papers with the same title
> prefix. So please allocate time on writing a short 3 page paper. Since
> panelists are not closely affiliated, each will review the papers of
> another panelist which will contribute to panel cohesion since the
> panelists will influence each others final paper. Note that the review
> process is public and non-blind.
>
> 3. Presentations followed by a period of questions to all panelists
> seems to be the choice. I assume there will be 20-30 minutes per
> panelist, yet we will have to set timing once we know number of
> presentations.
>
> Olaf asked about other presenters. Yes, there will be other
> presentations by non panelists. In fact any one of you can choose to
> detach from the panel and submit a paper on their own. I will send a
> CFP to the list following this message.
>
> The difference for panelists would be:
> 1. Panelists will have some discount that SCS promised - I have no
> exact details yet. This makes sense since they will have more
> involvement.
> 2. Panelists will gain extra exposure which you are already getting
> with these communications.
> 3. If time is available, panelists will get more time for discussion
> beyond other presenters. I will communicate with organizers to see
> what is possible beyond that. Yet for now, assume the panel is part
> of the BMPM track.
>
> Note that SummerSim is a Multi-conference, so having a panel may
> attract more people. From the past, you should expect about 10-20 in
> the room for the presentation if last years are indicative. I suspect
> a panel can attract more.
>
> So for panelists still interested, please:
>
> 1. Confirm that you are ok with the topic and format by sending an
> email to this list. Or continue discussing the topic until consensus
> is reached. And you can split into two panels with separate topics, or
> announce you are interested in a paper outside the panel.
>
> 2. Start writing a short 3 page paper to submit to the SCS web site.
> Recall that the title prefix should be the same for all papers if you
> are in the panel.
>
> 3. Allocate time to review a paper or two by another panelist. This
> review will be public.
>
> Hopefully this explains the next steps and I hope more panelists would
> express interest in the topic forming.
>
> Jacob
>
>
>
> Dear All,
> I agree with Stefan re 1 and 2.
>
> 1. I like the idea of talking about input-output stuff - data sources,
> constraints, validation issues.
>
> 2. Fully agree with Stefan.
>
> 3. If we have slides, this should be flash talks, not longish formal
> presentations. I am still unclear whether we have presentations from
> conference participants who are NOT panelists?
>
> My 2 cents
> Olaf
>
>
> --
>
> Olaf Dammann, MD
>
> Professor of Public Health & Community Medicine
>
> Tufts University School of Medicine
>
> Boston, MA 02111
>
>
> On Jan 21, 2016, at 4:00 AM, Stefan Scholz
> <stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de
> <mailto:stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de>> wrote:
>
>> Hi all,
>>
>> thanks for all your efforts! Here are my thoughts on the three points:
>>
>> 1. Topic: I am not quite sure whether the topics really do mean the
>> same thing. I would understand Melanies suggestion as "what are the
>> differences in the results/*output**s* from estimation vs.
>> simulation" whereas I would understand the topic "estimation in
>> population modeling" more as estimation of model *input *parameters.
>> (Please tell me, if I got that wrong!) I think both are interesting
>> topics and maybe we could bring them both together under the general
>> topic of validity (external and internal). (i.e. how do we estimate
>> model input to get externally valid results and how do we assess the
>> latter)
>>
>> 2. I would vote for separate papers under the same topic, sharing the
>> same prefix.
>>
>> 3. I would go for option B). Option A) is fine as well, but we should
>> make clear if there are some contrary opinions on this topic. If
>> panelists agree on almost every topic, this might get boring. Also, I
>> would see the number of people in the audience a critical factor for
>> a panel. If we are a small group, sharing the methods used for
>> estimation and discussing it in the group might be more beneficial to
>> all attendees.
>>
>> Best,
>> Stefan
>>
>> Am 19.01.2016 um 19:42 schrieb Jacob Barhak:
>>> Hi Melanie, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan, Hi Carl,
>>>
>>> You all expressed interest in appearing in a population modeling
>>> panel in SummerSim.
>>>
>>> Melanie also suggested a topic:
>>> "differences and extrapolation concerns around 'simulation vs.
>>> estimation’ in bio-medical area"
>>>
>>> At this point, I wish interested parties to discuss the following:
>>>
>>> 1. The topic - feel free to suggest alternative topics/titles and we
>>> can see how having the panel will contribute to the topic. Note that
>>> if we end up with different topics, it is also ok since others may
>>> join to support the topic you suggested. Hopefully there will be
>>> synergy, yet complementary topics or even different opinions are
>>> possible. This discussion itself is valuable.
>>>
>>> 2. Writing Format. The conference includes a paper. Part of the
>>> discussion should be how do you prefer to be published. Do you want
>>> a joint paper? Or would you like each to submit a short paper with
>>> similar topics? This would probably be tied to the topic you
>>> suggest. Yet note that whatever paper format chosen, it will undergo
>>> public non-blind review.
>>>
>>> 3. Presentation format: How would you like the talk to be?
>>> Possibilities include: A) Totally informal discussion where
>>> panelists converge amongst themselves, possibly with moderation and
>>> questions from he audience. B) Presentations with a projector of
>>> each panelist and then a period of questions. C) A combination of
>>> both, for example very short introductions with a projector and then
>>> a discussion. Assume half an hour per panelist, yet this may change.
>>>
>>> As a default starting point for discussion, allow me to suggest the
>>> following:
>>>
>>> 1. Topic Estimation in population modeling - its generalization for
>>> what Melanie suggested - feel free to reshape it any way comfortable
>>> to you.
>>>
>>> 2. Writing format: Very short separate papers using the topic as a
>>> title prefix. to have a common prefix fro all panelists. Here is an
>>> example: Estimation in population Modeling - application in Disease
>>> Models.
>>>
>>> 3. Presentation format: Short digital introductions of about 15
>>> minutes each - with only a few slides and a discussion that will
>>> start with expanding prepared topics encountered during discussions
>>> and review and then answering questions from the audience.
>>>
>>> This default can be changed during discussion.
>>>
>>> Please feel free to join this discussion if you are interested in
>>> appearing in a population modeling panel in SummerSim - even if you
>>> are not personally addressed. This post is initially directed to
>>> those who expressed interest on this list, yet we can certainly
>>> expand the scope to include more panelists, and I know of interest
>>> by others at this point.
>>>
>>> I look forward to your opinions.
>>>
>>> Jacob
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
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>>
>> --
>> Stefan Scholz
>>
>> University of Bielefeld
>> Faculty of Public Health
>> Department of Health Economics and Health Management
>> P.O. Box 10 01 31
>> D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany
>>
>> Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648
>> Mail:stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de <mailto:stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de>
>> _______________________________________________
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>
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--
Stefan Scholz
University of Bielefeld
Faculty of Public Health
Department of Health Economics and Health Management
P.O. Box 10 01 31
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany
Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648
Mail: stefan.scholz at uni-bielefeld.de
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