[Population Modeling] Population modeling definition

[Talitha Feenstra]

 Dear all, 

Following up on the definition discussion. 

I would suggest that the structure of the model (state transition, or DES, or agent-based, or whatever) is not so important for the question whether or not a model is a population model.  
More important seems that it reflects a "population". That is, rather than simulating a cohort of say 1000 people, it contains information on a population's epidemiology and demography. This may or may not include birth,and migration, and almost always includes mortality. This would then indeed exclude Markov cohort models, but more due to the cohort aspect than for their lack of modeling heterogeneity.

However the examples presented go very broad and also include populations of animals and even nonliving objects. Especially the latter gets confusing to me, how to distinguish between what I knew of as "agent-based modeling" which is a model structure, and "population modeling" ? 

kind regards, Talitha Feenstra


TL Feenstra, PhD
health economist
RIVM, Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services Research
Po Box 1
3720 BA Bilthoven
*31 30 274 4387 (mon)
* 31 6 1186 87 60
UMCG, dept of epidemiology
PO Box 30.001
9700 RB Groningen
*31 50 361 5110 (tue/thu/fri)

-----popmodwkgrpimag-news-bounces at simtk.org wrote: -----
To: popmodwkgrpimag-news at simtk.org
From: Stefan Scholz 
Sent by: popmodwkgrpimag-news-bounces at simtk.org
Date: 01/07/2015 10:58PM
Subject: Re: [Population Modeling] Population modeling definition

                   Hello all,
     
     I think the definition hits the broad subject really well. Maybe I     am seeing too much through the eyes of a health economist, but I     would draw the line of population models right after (cohort) markov     models. In my opinion mostly all of those cohort models ignore     patient heterogeneity and focus more on the disease rather than the     population. On the other hand I would say that "Individual Sampling     Models" and DES as presented by Al Chrosny and Jon Karnon do     incorporate patient heterogeneity and should be presented by the     term "population model". So maybe we can draw the line between     cohort and individual Markov models.
     
     Best regards,
     Stefan
     
     
     
     
On 07.01.2015 22:17, Jacob Barhak       wrote:
                 Hello All,
       There is a growing demand to define the term         population modeling. This need is visible in some recent         personal communications.
       This post will try to bring some quotes from         different people who try to define it during conversation. I         intend to use some of this in the paper, so I am bringing it to         the list first to get opinions of more people.
       So here are key quotes:
       Sergey Nuzhdin USC:
       "we are doing lots of population / quantitative         modeling, and i would love to get engaged in human community;
       but so far, our efforts have been in Drosophila and         plants"
       John Rice - Society for Simulation in Heathcare         (SSiH)  government relations vice chair:
       "Sergey,  perfect!  I want to learn about PopMod for         non human sciences and engineer applications.  If we had a         population of trees in a forrest,  in stead of a generalized         collective description. Could we predict the course of a forrest         fire better?  Only beginning to think about that, then here you         are, modeling a populations of  plants."
       Sergey replying: 
         " you are right, John, precisely what we are doing (among other         things);
       how to predict collective properties from individual         ones;
       there is plenty done about it when the subjects are         homogeneous, and very little when heterogeneous;"
       Madhav Marathe - Virginia Tech: 
         "The population modeling group is intended to be broad. Ofcourse         making it way too broad might make it harder for a cohesive         conversation but we can see how it plays out. I am calling this         population of things; it appears things is the best word I can         use to keep the intended generality. We have studied cells,         wireless devices, people and animals in the past for instance."
       It seems that the above discussion matches the ad hoc         definition we reached at the IMAG meeting at the NIH:
       "Modeling a collection of entities with different         levels of heterogeneity"
       We reached this definition quickly and it was a broad         consensus. However, others on the list may want to discuss this         definition and offer alternatives.
       For example Markov models address populations mostly         as time series and seldom consider differences between         individual entities,  yet I would still include Markov models         under the umbrella of population modeling. It is a difficult fit         to the above definition unless hetrogeneity among states is         considered within time.
       I would appreciate your thoughts and will try to         incorporate those in the paper.
                 Jacob
       
              
       
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